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There is not enough data for any pundit to accurately forecast what the US economy will look like on December 31, 2009. In 2008, pretty much all forecasters were wrong in either events or timing or both. This year we have seen the impossible, and realize that pretty much anything is possible next year. The economy is all about momentum. Once it is moving in a particular direction, the direction will continue until it runs past the equilibrium point. If you believe this is a normal recession, the economy will bounce right back as the equilibrium point was the economic level of December 2007 when the recession began. If you believe that a fundamental economic shift has occurred, then we have yet to reach the new equilibrium point. The economy is currently contracting, and never appeared to fully recover from the 2000 / 2001 recession. The first signs of this current economic downturn were evident in mid 2006 in housing and unemployment. Looking back to December 2007, there was enough evidence of contraction that NBER called this the starting point of the recession. Analyzing GDP since 1Q 2006, real growth (inflation adjusted) has been very slow. If the Iraq War was removed from the calculation, real growth was negligible to negative. There has been no driver for economic expansion except for the government since 2006. Without a driver, there can be no economic growth. And what does not grow, usually contracts. Until the economy re ignites, inflation is off of the table provided that the Fed does not go overboard monetizing the debt. This statement seems so illogical to me but it reinforces the perilous positions of the other major currencies and their economies. Currencies are valued against each other not against a set standard. The rest of the world is in a recession also. A year ago, I would have laughed at someone who said the world economies are coupled. There was ample evidence that Asia and Europe were creating their own economic winds, and the USA was becoming less and less important economically. It follows that the old adage, when the US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold, must still also be true. This means it is up to America to lead the world out of this recession, and we cannot rely on another country. The reasons for this recession Instruments of leverage Mortgage backed securities leveraged buyouts (LBOs), collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), asset backed securities and sub prime mortgages. As long as the buyer knew what they are buying, and can quantify the risks this may not have been a problem. But crap was packaged without investors opening the box. As long as there is economic expansion, almost any decision will make money. The economic slowdown exploded a bad practice. A lot of wealth has been evaporated. Consumer debt A subset of leverage is consumer debt. Credit cards and consumers using their houses as an ATM machine have built the largest per capita debt of any period in the history of America. At a certain point, the carrying cost of the debt eliminates enough disposable income that discretionary spending is reduced and the economic engine begins to lose power. Housing Another subset of leverage is housing. Leverage allowed the average Joe to make money by buying and selling houses. More and more people joined the party until the price of housing over ran the buyers' ability to purchase. The buyers dried up, the values began to fall. Wealth was destroyed. This cascade will continue. Demographic Shift The maturing baby boomers stopped consuming. Spengler, in his recent diatribe, Waking from Lever Lever Land, continues to hammer on this point. There is no way to go back to past economic growth because the baby boomer economic engine has already retired. Evaporation of Wealth In no past recession, has wealth evaporation been as severe. The wealth evaporation ratios now equal that of the Great Depression. Even though wealth evaporation is a symptom of economic contraction, it is now a significant impediment to recovery. Without wealth, investment is limited. The government cannot take the place of an investor. Like a ball player kicked in the nuts, the economy will rest while wealth is rebuilt. This time period should be measured in years. Bottom line Now with massive evaporation of wealth, housing, no economic driver, and maxed out credit what will pull us out of a recession? Government deficit spending will help short term, but will restrain recovery due to the added debt burden. Pulling out of Iraq will have negative effects on the war toys industries but will have a positive effect on debt reduction. Debt reduction will not happen because of bailouts and government infrastructure projects. Economic forecasts are relying on government stimulus spending, the Fed replacing high interest rate paper with low interest rate paper, and the Fed liquidity to overcome the negative forces which are pulling on the economy. No doubt they will have some mitigating effects but will they be more than transitory? What about the potential of additional economic crisis? What about the continuing fall in employment? There are too many goblins out there to start painting rosy pictures of the future, or believing that no additional shoes will fall. My guess is a 5.0% (negative five percent) real GDP growth in 2009 based on leading indicators, demographic changes, and negative economic momentum. This is more negative than other forecasters who appear to be using historical recession recovery models. My forecast attempts to integrate demographic changes which cannot be quantified. A 0.7% GDP contraction occurred in 1949 anything above this would be the largest economic contraction since the Great Depression. Stimulus packages. I do not believe effects of any stimulus will be felt until 3Q 2009 and then only at a slow and continuously building rate. If a stimulus could be found to have immediate impact, my guess would be adjusted upward. Inflation. My guess uses 2000 Chained dollars so the effects of inflation and deflation are included. However, hyper inflation or 1929 type hyper deflation have economic consequences which are not included. Luck. I have included some bad luck in my guess. If no new bad economic fall in 2009, economic conditions will be better than my guess. Guess. I do not have a crystal ball to forecast a year in the future, and in these uncertain and unstable times you should not believe any long term forecast. I am fairly confident of my guess until some point between the first and second quarter of 2009. After that, other unpredictable and dynamic economic factors start creeping in making the crystal ball opaque. Other Pundits' Forecasts Morgan Stanley: 1.9% CNN: +2.9% The Conference Board: 1.5% NABE: +0.7% IMF: +0.6% UBS: +1.8% Goldman Sachs: +1.5% You will note the guesses by the pundits vary from high to low by almost 5%. I do not recall a time the forecasts varied by more than 1% or 2%. I have laid out my rationale for this 2009 economic forecast. It would be interesting to hear your thoughts and forecasts for 2009 and here is your chance to document them. Air Jordan Winterized 6 Rings Cool Grey Chlorine Blue ,Air Jordan 6 Rings Venom Green Air Jordan 3 Retro 88 White Cement Air Jordan 11 Ultimate Gift of Flight Air Jordan 6 Rings Powder Blue Air Jordan 6 Olympic Gold Medal Pack Air Jordan 11 Ultimate Gift of Flight Air Jordan 11 Ultimate Gift of Flight Air Jordan 6 Rings Venom Green Air Jordan 6 Rings Powder Blue jump to contentmy subredditswhat's this?TROPHY CASE I an MWD working for one of the big 3. What I heard when training for classes is someone came up with rotary steerable, and the other two companies basically stole the idea. Someone came up with triple combo for density/neutron, and the other two stole that idea. And so on and so forth. All the companies do the same exact thing. give downhole data for directional, gamma, resistivity, density, neutron, etc. and just have different software or change one thing BARELY and pass it off as their own patented with their own special name. Currently on a job right now running rotary steerable instead of a mud motor sliding/rotating, and it much faster drilling which I enjoy because that means I go home sooner :) I work for one of the big 3 and for us the difference is pay, future office position, and presentations. Field engineers are entered into a 3 year program called the Engineering Development Program where they are groomed into an office position after three years in the field and promotions require presentations in front of coordinators and important people. They get a really high salary with no day rate as a Field Engineer 1. Field Specialists get a decent day rate right off the bat with half the salary of an engineer. No presentations or EDP classes are required to move up the ranks, but once you get to the 4th highest one a presentation IS required. Now here is the fucked up part. I know coworkers that DON have engineering degrees in the FE program. I also know a shit ton of coworkers that are Field Specialists WITH Engineering degrees. Their reasoning is they don want to do presentations OR go in the office bc pay is higher in the field. It whatever you apply for and once you are hired there is no switching. Of course this is all specific of my company so it just to give you a little insight on how one of the big 3 operates. Lastly, we do the same exact job and unless I ask if they are FS or FE, I would never know. I say your chances are good enough on land already. Just apply to all the big service companies and walk into their field office and try to talk to someone about getting an interview. Oilfield experience + degree = high chance of getting hired. Harder to get on offshore though. Although the hiring criteria is technically the same, more people apply offshore bc of the higher pay and the scheduled time off associated with offshore work. I worked on land as MWD for a year and after a year transferred with the same company offshore and I noticed the skillset/experience/degree of my coworkers offshore is WAY higher then my land coworkers. I knew a guy I hired on with back in 2011 working on land (in the Rockies) that had a business degree and interviewed with the company. He was denied because he didn have a technical degree (he had a business degree) and no oilfield experience. He was told to get some oilfield experience and re apply in 6 12 months and they hire him. He did just that. Got a lower position job in fracking for 6 12 and re applied. Air Jordan Winterized 6 Rings Cool Grey Chlorine Blue,Tucson Endurance Sports Examiner Mary Reynolds is a native Tucsonan who enjoys epic and non epic adventures in the Tucson region. When not at her day job, she can be found biking on roads or trails, hiking, and backpacking in the nearby mountain ranges. She competes in running races, road cycling races, 24 hour mountain bike races, and the Arizona Trail 300 mountain bike race. She even tried barefoot running on subdivision sidewalks. Check out her blog on every day adventures in the Tucson area. For young ladies, a popular choice throughout the years has been a cheerleader. But what do cheerleaders dress as? TechTechGadgets TechVideo GamesInternetTech GearTabletsiPhoneGoogle GlassWearable TechXbox OnePlaystation 4PhotographyMMOGsHandheld GamesFacebookAnonymousSocial MediaConsolesBitcoinGoogle

Shop Cheap Air Jordan Winterized 6 Rings Cool Grey Chlorine Blue,Air Jordan 5Lab3 Black If you needed a hearing aid, you wouldn't choose one based on style. If you needed a cane, you wouldn't look for a designer label. But if you had a problem with your vision, you would choose eye glasses based not only on their function, but on their look as well. Eye glasses are more than a medical necessity. They are a fashion statement. So here are some tips if you're choosing eye glasses. Set Your Price Range While most insurance covers routine eye exams and some of the cost of the lenses, the frames are your responsibility. Top designer frames can cost several hundred dollars. So the first thing to do when choosing eye glasses is to find frames that fit your budget. Opticians will often run specials, offering select frames for half price. This may be a good place to start your search when choosing glasses. Get a Second Opinion When you choose eye glasses, you're facing a sizeable range of options. Frames come in dozens of basic styles and colors, with seemingly endless variations within each category. Of course, there are practical reasons for going with one style over another. But, let's face it, when you choose eye glasses, you're influenced as much by how they look on you as by how they feel. So when you try them on, don't just trust the mirror, ask someone else's opinion. After all, how you see yourself is not how others see you. See Things Clearly Of course, eye glasses are as much about the lenses as the frames. So your choice of glasses should also be based on the type of lenses you need. While you may want to set a price limit on the frames, when choosing eye glasses, you shouldn't economize on the lenses. For example, scratchproof lenses cost a bit more, but will last a lot longer and save you money in the long run. If you spend a lot of time in front of a screen or computer monitor, tinted lenses can help reduce eye strain and fatigue. There are also lenses specially coated to help improve your night vision when driving. Get Them Fitted This is the most important step when you choose eye glasses. Have them properly fitted when you pick them up to ensure that they are resting comfortably on the bridge of your nose and that you can see clearly. Air Jordan Winterized 6 Rings Cool Grey Chlorine Blue Feet swell during the course of the day due to increased blood flow to the feet from walking and running. When running, this process of swelling increases. It is important to buy a shoe that is slightly too large and too wide so that the feet have room to swell without causing blisters or cramping. In order to find the correct shoe size, go shopping later in the day after your feet have swollen, then choose a roomy shoe. By doing this, injuries decrease and the runner is able to enhance performance by evading discomfort. Feet tend towards one of three arch types: normal, low, or high. Most shoes are designed for normal arches. However, low arches tend to cause feel to roll inward, causing strain from overuse that can either injure or slow down a runner. High arches tend to roll feet outward, causing ankle injuries when not properly supported. To determine arch type, dip your foot in paint or water and step on a piece of paper. A normal arch will have about a 1 inch thick print between toes and heel, while a low arch will be wider and a high arch will be thinner. For high and low arches, choose a shoe that provides more ankle support and has soles designed to fit your feet. Gait is how you land after taking a step. Overpronated gaits force landings on the outside of the heel first, while underpronated gaits cause landing on the inside of the heel. Overpronators are more likely to lose balance and fall, causing serious ankle and leg injuries; a shoe with stabilizing soles and ankle support will help decrease the likelihood of injuries. An underpronator, as well as someone with a normal gait, needs cushioning to decrease shock. A thicker sole can also help to reduce injuries, keeping a runner running longer.

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